POLLSTER ZOGBY: HISPANICS MAY BE SWING VOTE IN '08

Pollster John Zogby, writng today for The Huffington Post, says the 2008 election could be significantly impacted by the ever-growing, and as yet uncommitted, Hispanic vote.

Hispanic voters shifted notably toward George Bush in 2004 and then back toward the Democrats in the 2006 mid-terms.

Zogby says a key factor in '08 will be the way this voting block swings. And he says Republicans aren't winning any friends in this group with their stance on immigration.

Just as in the 1990s, the party was viewed as the mean party that hated all immigrants, today the Republicans struggle to find a middle ground among the anti-immigration conservatives and the growing Hispanic voter base. There is no doubt that immigration hurt the party overall this year. If the party is smart, it will compromise on immigration and work with the Democrats on an immigration reform that grants amnesty to guest workers, offers a path to citizenship, and at least tries to reduce the flow of new illegal immigrants entering the country.
And the fence will have to go.

SIX REASONS WHY HILLARY WILL FIND THE GOING ROUGH IN '08

The conventional wisdom of Hillary as frontrunner continues to take a beating today. (See our previous post). The National Journal's Chuck Todd points out six reasons why Clinton may find tough sledding on those snowy primary nights a year or so from now.

Todd says :

1. Clinton backers appear to lack the passion shown by supporters of other candidates.
2. In Iowa, no woman has ever been elected to a national office or as governor
3. Her positions on Iraq are rather hawkish to hold up well in Democratic primaries
4. Gender could be a problem, since no woman has ever held the office before
5. Comparisons to her husband and concerns she may not measure up may hurt her
6. Voters may want to break the Bush, Clinton, Bush cycle

I'm not saying I buy any or all of these, though No. 1 sure seems to have validity from where I stand. But I present them for your perusal.

MAKING A CASE FOR TOM VILSACK

As we reported in an earlier posting today, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack became the first Democrat to officially toss his hat into the presidential ring.

He's clearly not a household name outside of his home state, but Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's The Fix plays devils advocate in favor of this long-shot bid.

IS HILLARY COOLING TO IDEA OF '08 BID?

The head of Iowa's Democratic Party says New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is not making adequate preparations for a presidential campaign in the state, which may be an indication that a big surprise is ahead.

Iowa's Democratic Party Chairman Rob Tully, in trying to explain the lack of a Clinton presence in Iowa, told FOX News last night that the senator, in his opinion, may decide not to run in '08 if Barack Obama gets into the race.

Clinton has not made a public appearance in about two weeks, something that hasn't gone unnoticed by the New York Post, which says Clinton has surrendered the national spotlight to Obama.

According to the Post, Clinton aides say the Senator is simply taking a break.

Meanwhile, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Lynn Sweet predicts Obama will run, lays out a strategy for the pre-primary period and says an Obama candidacy would be a serious impediment to a Clinton run.

VILSACK OFFICIALLY KICKS OFF CAMPAIGN

Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is officially launching his 2008 presidential campaign today at Iowa Wesleyan College.

"Most of all, I am running for president to replace the anxiety of today with the hope of tomorrow and to guarantee every American their birthright: Opportunity," Vilsack said in remarks prepared for the kickoff.

Vilsack's bid is considered to be a very long shot, as he is at the bottom of recent polls and his name-recognition is extremely low outside the state.

ADD BIDEN, HAGEL TO THE LIST OF '08 CANDIDATES

Sen. Joe Biden, a Democrat from Delaware says he will add his name to the growing list of 2008 presidential candidates.

In an interview taped for broadcast tonight and tomorrow on New England Cable News, Biden says he HAS decided to run, would be surprised if Illinois Sen. Barack Obama runs and wouldn't rule out another serious run by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

(video if/when available).

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports today that Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska is seriously considering a bid for the GOP nomination. Hagel, who has rocked the boat in the GOP Happyland that existed before Nov. 7, had a snowball's chance until the election drove home to party leaders just how unhappy voters had been with Republican leadership and the Bush administration.

COLUMNIST ADVISES ROMNEY TO "TALK MORMON"

Today in Slate, columnist John Dickerson offers some unsolicited, yet seemingly helpful advice to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is expected to make a bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

Dickerson says Romney should, very quickly, start talking about his Morman faith and his religious beliefs - before the media and potential rivals help shape the public's perception of his beliefs for him.

DODD MULLS PRESIDENTIAL RUN

With so many candidates expected to seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 it would seem all the niches are taken.

But, the New York Observer reports, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd has found a slot for himself - the old but new guy.

“I sort of have a unique position because I have experience, but I’m sort of a fresh face,” told the Observer.

HILLARY SEES OBAMA AS BIGGEST ROADBLOCK

Insight reports New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is watching Illinois Sen. Barack Obama very closely, viewing him as the biggest roadblock to her bid to win the Democratic nomination.

Insight quotes "sources close tothe senator" as saying Clinton is trying to detrmine if Obama can be persuaded to join the Clinton ticket or if he might be interested in a key Cabinet post in a Clinton administration in exchange for stearing clear of the presidential race this time around.

OBAMA DECISION IS "WEEKS AWAY"

Meanwhile, a spokesman for Obama told the Chicago Tribune a decision by Obama is still "several weeks away."

ROMNEY HIRES ECONOMICS TEAM

On the Republican side, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to staff-up. The Washington Post reports Romney has signed two former Bush II advisors to lead his economic policy staff.

GILMORE ALSO WEIGHING GOP BID

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore is considering a run at the White House. But, as ABC's Political Radar blog reports, it's just one of many options Gilmore is considering.

FRIST WON'T RUN IN '08

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has decided not to run for the GOP presidential nomination in '08.

Frist told the Wall Street Journal he plans to take "a sabbatical from public life."

He'll be leaving the Senate after serving two terms, which is what he said he would do when he first ran for the post.

CARTER BACKS AL GORE FOR '08

Former President Jimmy Carter says he'd like to see Al Gore run for president again in 2008 and said he would support a Gore candidacy.

On NBC's Hardball last night, Carter said he is certain that Gore won the 2000 election and that he pressured Gore so strongly to run in 2004 that Gore, in a polite way, told Carter to get off his case about it.

View the video here. (The comments on Gore are about 5:45 seconds into the conversation, which is primarily about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict).

GEN. CLARK SAYS HE MAY RUN IN '08

Gen. Wesley Clark told FOX News today he is considering another run for the Oval Office in 2008.

But the retired NATO commander said if he does seek the Democratic nomination, he won't make the same mistake he made last time - getting into the race much too late.

Clark says the large number of candidates already considered to be running will have an effect on his decision.

Clark says his military and foreign policy experience will be his key asset in any bid he might make.

GINGRICH WARNS CURBS ON FREEDOM OF SPEECH MAY BE NECESSARY

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is considering a bid for the GOP presidential nomination in '08, says Americans may have to get used to the idea that they may face curbs on their right to free speech, the Union Leader (Manchester N.H.) reports today.

Gingrich, who made the comments at a dinner last night in Manchester, said the U.S. may have to curb Internet and other speech in an effort to fight terrorism.

DURBIN PUSHING BARACK TO RUN AS OBAMA HEADS TO NEW HAMPSHIRE

Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is urging his fellow senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, to seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008.

Durbin has started an online site to petition Obama to get into the race.

Chicago Sun Times columnist Lynn Sweet takes a look at the politics behind the move, and how Durbin stands to gain.

Meanwhile, Obama is packing his bags for a trip to New Hampshire early next month, where he'll be attending a Democratic Party victory bash.

HOPEFULS STAFFING UP IN EARLY-PRIMARY STATES

Massachusetts' Republican Gov. Mitt Romney is lining up supporters in the early primary states, hiring South Carolina political strategist Warren Tompkins as his senior Southeast advisor.

Meanwhile, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack has lined up support in New Hampshire from Gary Hirshberg, an activist and donor.

ANOTHER PATAKI DEFECTION

Departing New York Gov. George Pataki, in another sign his bid for the GOP nimination is going nowhere fast, lost another supporter in Iowa. Craig Schoenfeld stepped down as executive director of Pataki's PAC in the state. That's two defections from the Pataki camp in Iowa in about a week's time.

IT TURNS OUT GIULIANI, McCAIN AND OBAMA ARE HOT - OR AT LEAST FAIRLY WARM

That is the finding of one of the less conventional polls taken by Quinnipiac University.

In a poll that attempts to take the overall voter "temperature" on the nation's leaders, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani tops the list, followed closely by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) and Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Voters are asked to give a 1 to 100 rating for their overall feelings toward a number of the nation's leaders. Rudy Giuliani scored a 64% while Obama came in at 58.8% and McCain at 57.7%. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton finished ninth, four notches below her husband, the former president.

Illinois Sen. Evan Bayh (D), Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) were among the least well-known; Each was unknown by nearly two in three Americans.

See the numbers here.

SIX SEEN AS AHEAD OF THE PACK IN SWING-STATE, OHIO

Six candidates, three Democrats and three Republicans, seem to have given themselves a leg up in the Buckeye state, as a slew of candidates visited the state during the fall campaign.

The Toledo Blade this morning sums up who made political hay in Ohio while stumping for the locals there.

The Ohio insiders say only a half-dozen emerged as serious threats to win the state. Democrats include Mrs. Clinton, the former first lady who is now a senator from New York; Mr. Obama, an African-Aerican freshman senator from Illinois, and John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina and the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee.

Republicans include Mr. McCain, the maverick senator from Arizona; Mr. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Some Republicans also mention former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; others do not consider him seriously. -- The Toldeo Blade

IOWA STRAW POLL SET

The Des Moines Register reports today the GOP's Iowa straw poll has been slated for next summer - Aug. 11 to be exact. The party fundraising event is also an early barometer of candidate support in the state - the first to weigh in during the '08 primary season with its caucus in January.

ROMNEY STIFFS LOCAL GOP

Hoping to help Republican candidates in close races around the country, and collect political IOU's in the process, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney apparently was generous with campaign funds. But in his oh-so-blue home state, the Boston Herald reports, Romney's PAC did not donate a penny to local Republicans in the '06 election cycle.

GORE - ONCE AGAIN - SAYS HE'S NOT RUNNING

Former Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore was the subject of TIME magazine's "10-questions" feature this week. The last question, of course, was whether or not Gore will run for the presidency in 2008.

I don't have any plans to run. Nor do I have any creative denials. I'm using the same ones. They'll soon be out on DVD. --Al Gore to TIME magazine

THE MAGAZINE RACK: TIME ASKS, CAN A MORMON BE PRESIDENT?

From time to time we like to look at some of the more politically oriented articles newly available on the magazine rack.

TIME magazine, in the issue hitting news stands tomorrow, looks at how the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints (LDS) is preparing for the probable presidential bid of one of its leading members, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The TIME article says church leaders continue to try to dispel one of the most widely held misconceptions about the Mormon faith, that it permits polygamy.

Even though the church has not allowed members to have multiple wives since 1890, that's not how it comes across on TV, in books or even in the courts. --TIME

It is also working to distance itself from a fundamentalist splinter group, which is not recognized by LDS but has been making news lately.

More recently, the 50-year-old leader of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a sect that has been disavowed by the LDS, has been on trial on two first-degree felony counts of rape. He is accused of helping arrange the marriage of a 14-year-old girl and her 19-year-old cousin in 2001 --TIME

The public relations effort will have to go beyond dispelling what the church does NOT believe.

Mormons acknowledge works of Scripture that are not in the Bible, believe that their prophets have received revelations directly from God and teach that God has a physical body. Evangelicals consider them heretics. The Southern Baptist Convention lists the LDS church under Cults and Sects, along with Scientology. --TIME

Recent polls show that more than one-third of Americans say they would not vote for a Mormon for president, including this Rasmussen Reports poll released earlier this week which put the number at 43%.

OBAMA FEATURED IN ELLE

Barack Obama has vaulted quickly into the top tier of possible Democratic candidates for president in '08. Elle has a lengthy profile of the man many are calling the leader of the new generation of politicians.

OBAMA KICKS TIRES IN IOWA, COURTS EVANGELICALS

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is dipping a toe in the political waters in Iowa.

The Des Moines Register reports Obama, who has jumped quickly into the top tier of Democratic possibles for '08, has been seeking the advice of some of Iowa's top Democratic politcos.

Obama has already been picked up by the radar of political junkies in the U.K.

The Sunday Times (London) has taken notice of Obama and reports today on the Senator's plans to appear this week at one of the U.S's largest evangelical churches, in Lake Forest, Calif.

BROWNBACK CLOSE TO DECISION

Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is nearing a decision on whether to join the hunt on the Republican side.

"I think there is room on the Republican side for somebody that's a full-scale conservative, that's an economic and fiscal and social conservative," Brownback said today on ABC's "This Week" as quoted by the Associated Press.

FOUR REASONS HILLARY CAN WIN: PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

The Philadelphia Inquirer today debunks the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton will make a great primary candidate and a lousy standard bearer against the GOP.

ROMNEY FOLLOWS THROUGH ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE PLEDGE

Masachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, mentioned as one of the likely candidates for the GOP presidential nomination in '08, threatened recently to try to force a vote by the state legislature on same-sex marriage.

On Friday, in the quiet of the long holiday weekend, Romney followed through on his intentions by filing suit asking Masachussets' highest court to force the state legislature to vote on a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage or place the question before voters in the state.

McCAIN, CLINTON SEEN HELPED BY PUSH FOR EARLY PRIMARIES

Florida, California and Michigan are pushing hard to move their presidential primaries to the front end of the schedule, the Boston Globe reports.

The three are high-cost campaign states, which would seem to offer the front-runners with money - Hillary Clinton and John McCain - the chance to make a big, quick splash that just might knock some of the less-well-heeled out of the water early.

ANTI-MORMON SENTIMENT MAY HURT ROMNEY

Not quite sure how we missed this one early this week, but according to a Rasmussen Reports poll, 43% of Americans say they wouldn't even consider voting for a Mormon for president.

The numbers are not good news for Republican Masachussets Gov. Mitt Romney, a Mormon, who is leaning toward a presidential bid in '08.

TWO POLITICAL PROS TALK ABOUT 2008

Rolling Stone magazine's latest issue includes a wrap-up of the 2006 mid-terms and a look ahead at 2008, as seen by two veterans of the political wars, David Gergen - an aide to four different presidents (Democrat and Republican alike) - and Peter Hart, pollster for The Wall Street Journal and NBC News.

The two seem to agree that 2006 was about the political center reasserting itself and they see the middle of the road as the place to be in '08.

SHARPTON MULLING BID IN '08

Rev. Al Sharpton, the New York City activist, says he may make another run at the presidency in 2008, if he doesn't hear anyone else raising "progressive" issues.

Sharpton ran in the Democratic primaries in 2004 but eventually backed party nominee John Kerry.

BLOOMBERG WON'T RUN, OR ENDORSE, IN '08

Saying he plans to keep his "day job," New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg today dismissed all speculation about him running as an independent candidate for president in '08.

Bloomberg told the New York Times' Empire Zone he likely won't do any endorsing either, since he'll have to work with whoever wins.

RICE SEEN AS MOST POWERFUL WOMAN IN U.S.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is seen as the most powerful woman in the country, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released this morning.

Of those polled, 45% picked Rice as the most powerful woman in the U.S., compared with Sen. Hillary Clinton at 29% and House Speaker-in-waiting Nancy Pelosi at 23%.

Among Democrats, the three were split nearly evenly, with Clinton at 33%, Rice at 32% and Pelosi at 30%. Some 60% of Republicans chose Rice, while 22% picked Clinton and 15% named Peolosi.

A majority of those polled thought both Clinton and Rice were qualified to be president, but more folks than not felt Pelosi - third in line once she becomes Speaker - is not qualified.

MIRROR, MIRROR WHO'S THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OF THEM ALL?

Arizona Sen. John McCain may be the only one of the three men to take an official step toward a presidential run in '08, but McCain, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are all laying claim to the title of the only "true" conservative in the race - whatever that means.

Brownback in today's Lawrence (Kan.) Journal-World (via the AP):

"I think there's room for a full-scale Ronald Reagan conservative in the field.

"I fully agree that other people have much higher name identification than I do. No question about that. But I think what you have to look at is the policy positions they get out once you have an effective campaign."

McCain on Bloomberg.com (quoted from his appearance on Meet The Press last Sunday):

"I am a conservative Republican in the school of Ronald Reagan - who, by the way, brought our party back after a defeat in 1976 and gave us hope and optimism."

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, quoted today in the Washington Examiner, comparing himself to McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani:

"We're in a different place on immigration; we're in a different place on campaign reform; we're in a different place on same-sex marriage; we're in a different place on the president's policy on interrogation of detainees.

"I'm a conservative Republican, there's no question about that."

Meanwhile, in New York City, a liberal group threatened yesterday to "swift boat" Rudy Giuliani, to shine a light on what the group feels was Giuliani's heavy-handed approach to city goverment, or what he called improvement of the quality-of-life in the city.

Giuliani is NOT claiming to be the a "true" conservative, but in today's New York Post, John Podhoretz argues the former mayor's enemies at home may just raise his stock among GOP primary voters.

"On issue after issue of concern to America's conservatives - the misuse of the welfare system, the destructive effects of bilingual education, the disastrous misuse of public monies by municipal unions, the need for tax cuts, the essential requirement of supporting the city's police against unjust attack as they risked their lives to secure civil peace - Rudy fought." -- John Podhoretz New York Post

EYE ON NEWT; GINGRICH WANTS THE PRESIDENCY TO COME TO HIM

Fortune Magazine has an interesting story this week.

While dozens of others are scurrying around the country, laying the ground work for their bid for the presidency, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich - architect of the Republican Revolution of 1994 - plans to let the presidency come to him, according to the story in Fortune.

"I am not 'running' for president. I am seeking to create a movement to win the future by offering a series of solutions so compelling that if the American people say I have to be president, it will happen." -- Newt Gingrich as quoted in Fortune Magazine.

The magazine reports Gingrich is hoping to build a groundswell of support for his health care, national security and energy security plans and let a 'draft-Newt' movement spring forth.

Gingrich told Fortune there's a difference between himself and the other GOP hopefuls that the grass roots will notice and be excited about.

"Nice people," Gingrich says of his GOP competitors. "But we're not in the same business. They're running for president. I'm running to change the country."

All that and modest too!!!

CNN POLL: CLINTON LEADS DEMS; KERRY SLIPS AFTER "JOKE"

Sen. Hillary Clinton is well ahead of her Democratic counterparts in the latest CNN presidential preference poll, released today.

The poll also shows that support for Sen. John Kerry has slipped by five percentage points since last month - which was before his infamous "botched joke" about President Bush.

Sen. Barack Obama placed second in the polling, but is still well behind Clinton.
Here are the numbers:

• Sen. Hillary Clinton 33%
• Sen. Barack Obama 15%
• Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 14%
• Former Vice President Al Gore 14%
• Sen. John Kerry 7%
• Retired Gen. Wesley Clark 4%
• Sen. Joe Biden 3%
• New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson 3%
• Sen. Evan Bayh 2%
• Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack 1%

Check out the full PDF of all the numbers here.

WILL CLINTON RUN AT ALL?

That question is being asked, at least in some circles today.

The Las Vegas Sun reports that a blogger-induced rumor - that Sen. Harry Reid would give up his post as Majority Leader to Clinton if she would stay out of the presidential race - continues to have legs even though both Reid and Clinton have denied it.
The appeal, according to the Sun's report, is that Clinton would be a strong leader in the Senate and she could be replaced with a less-polarizing candidate for the White House.

SCHWARZENEGGER SEEKING '08 STAGE

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger can't run for president because he was not born in the U.S. But that hasn't stopped him from trying to put his stamp on the '08 race.

The Los Angeles Times reports today that Schwarzenegger is mulling a major policy speech, to be delivered early next year, either in Iowa or New Hampshire, in the hopes it will help to inject his centrist policies into the Republican political discussion.

WOULD BLOOMBERG TAKE THE PLUNGE? WILL SAYS HE WON'T

Another centrist being touted for '08 is New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. In his nationally syndicated column Sunday, George Will tells us why Bloomberg won't.

REPUBLICANS MAY BE NOT-SO-FAVORED FAVORITE SONS

Republicans thinking about running for president are not playing as well at home as are their Democratic counterparts.

That's the key finding in exit polling done by CBS News and released today by the network.

As voters left the polling places earlier this month, CBS exit pollers asked them if they thought a specific favorite-son candidate would make a good president.

The names of eight Republicans were put forth to voters in the home states of the presidential wanna-bees, and in only on case did the majority of voters say their local pol would be a good president.

That was in Arizona, where 48% of voters said they thought John McCain would make a good president, while 41% said they thought he would not.

None of the other seven candidates - the usual names (Giuliani, Romney, Hagel, Frist etc...) - won the support of voters in their state. Rudy Giuliani was the only other potential candidate to come close, with 47% of New Yorkers saying the former New York City mayor would make a good president and 51% saying he would not.

Among Republican voters only, all but two favorite-son candidates won approval of their state's voters. The two who didn't - Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel who has not been a good soldier for the Bush administration and New York Gov. George Pataki who just doesn't seem to have struck a chord with voters.

DEM FAVORITE SON'S (AND DAUGHTER) MORE POPULAR AT HOME

The story is somewhat different on the Democratic side. Three of the five Democrats who were named in the poll, were favored by a majority of those polled in their home state, while all five did well among voters in their party.

The most solid performer among the Democrats was Sen. Barack Obama. Some 64% of Illinois voters of all stripes thought Obama would make a good president, while just 29% said he would not.

Click here to see the full PDF of results.

GOP TO USE PELOSI AS WEAPON IN WAR ON HILLARY

Nancy Pelosi is at the heart of the Republican's plan to bring down Hillary Clinton's '08 presidential bid.

The GOP plans to paint the two as the Bobsey Twins and hope to kill two "birds" with one stone. (That's old fashioned Republican talk for "women").

So says a report in today's Telegraph. The U.K. newspaper quotes disgraced fromer GOP House Speaker Tom Delay on Republican strategy:

"Two years of Pelosi gives a good idea of what four years of Hillary will be like," said Tom DeLay, the Republican powerbroker who ran his party in the House before he was caught up in a lobbyist corruption scandal. "They are both committed liberals and we will make that clear to the American people."

A couple of questions jump out on this one. Why would anyone pay Tom DeLay any mind (not that I have any doubt that his assessment of GOP strategy is accurate)?

Also, what makes Pelosi and Clinton essentially the same person? Should the Democrats say Mitt Romney is the same kind of snake in the grass as DeLay, just because they are both white, male, Republican and conservative.

We think the American people will be smart enough to know that both Pelosi and Clinton should, and will, stand or fall on their own merits.

ROMNEY LEADS UTAH POLL

Not that it's a bellwhether state, or even close to being on the same political planet as the rest of the country, but for what it's worth residents of Utah favor Mitt Romney at this juncture of the presidential dance.

In a copyrighted story today, the Desert Morning News reported Sunday that 44% of Utahns polled would vote for Romney if the presidential election were held today. John McCain of neighboring Arizona was next at 15% and Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani finished in a tie for third at 7%.

A couple of things about this poll, done for the Desert Morning News and KSL-TV. No.1: It IS Utah after all, so how much can you read into it? Also, why on earth would the pollster bundle Democrats and Republicans in a presidential poll taken two years out? There is a little something known as a primary season that must be completed before one party faces the other, remember?

CLINTON NOT IN FAVOR OF OUSTING DEAN

Before we stray too far away from the topic of Hillary Clinton, the (NY) Daily News reports today that Clinton was not behind, nor supportive of, James Carville's attempt to topple Howard Dean as head of the Democratic National Committe. Carville, a former advisor to President Bill Clinton who retains close ties with the Clinton camp, last week called for the ouster of Dean. Carville suggested he should be replaced with unsuccesful senate candidate Harold Ford of Tennessee

IRAQ AND '08

The Newsweek magazine hitting the stands tomorrow has an interesting look at how the war in Iraq may help shape the 2008 presidential race.

In its report, the magazine says the two early frontrunners have the most to lose, with Republican John McCain carving out the most hawkish position of anyone running and Democrat Hillary Clinton refusing to repudiate her vote in favor of the war.

SOME ADVICE FOR RUDY

Several political strategists had some campaign advice for Rudy Giuliani in a story in today's New York Times. Among the most notable, former Cheney adviser Mary Matalin advises Giuliani to "evolve" to a more conservative platform slowly so as to not look phony in doing so. Democratic strategist Paul Begala advises the former New York mayor, who is pro-choice in an anti-abortion party, to "surrender" on the issue.

WEEKEND READING:
What if Women Ran The World?
Some Final (We Hope) Thoughts on the '06 Elections
What to Expect in '08
Cashing in on Slow-Acting Pols

What if women ran the world (or at the very least NATO)? Would it be a kinder, gentler place - as is often argued. We may soon find out. As London's Financial Times reports, it is entirely possible the U.S., Germany and France may all be run by women two years from now. And with Tony Blair at least promising to leave the scene, there'll be an opening in the U.K. soon too. Check out the FT article for more.

SIX MYTHS ABOUT THE '06 ELECTIONS

There's a whole lot of spinning going on as Democrats try to take their 2006 victory and run and the right wing tries - desperately - to spin it as anything but a major blow to the conservative cause. The Nation this week debunks what it calls the six myths of '06.

CRAIG CRAWFORD HANDICAPS '08

Pundit Craig Crawford, who can be read in the Congressional Quarterly and on its blog CQ Politics.com, as well as heard and seen on MSNBC and CBS' The Early Show, has some early thoughts on how '08 may play out. He argues that in such an historic election, with such a wide-open field, conventional wisdom may not apply.

THIS URL ALREADY TAKEN

The Internet may be an infinite medium, but presidential candidates may be scrambling for URLs for the 2008 campaign sites. In a story Saturday, The New York Times reports some fast-acting entrepenuers stand to cash in as candidates look to take back Internet URLs the bear their name.

PEW POLL SHOWS CLINTON LEADING DEMS; GIULIANI McCAIN TOP GOP

It feels like I've written this before. Probably because I have - twice this week.

The latest presidential preference poll, this time from Pew Research, produced virtually the same results as polls earlier this week by Siena and Gallup.

Hillary Clinton is well out in front on the Democratic side of the Pew poll among Democrats, though Barak Obama is strong among independents. (Independents can vote in the partisan primaries in some states).

On the GOP side, Giuliani and McCain are neck-and-neck among Republicans and independents.

Hear are the tables:

• Dems Ind.
• Clinton 39 27
• Obama 23 21
• Edwards 10 11
• Gore 10 8
• Kerry 7 9

• GOP Ind.
• Giuliani 27 30
• McCain 26 32
• Rice 20 15
• Romney 7 4
• Gingrich 6 4

In addition to Obama's reasonably strong showing, one other set of numbers jumps out.

Giuliani, seen by many as too liberal on social issues to win the GOP nomination, does slightly better than McCain among Republicans. At the same time McCain, doing his best to slide over and become the conservative's top dog in the race, fares better than Giuliani among the less dogmatic independents.

If you click on the link to this poll you'll see it also measures opinions on a wide range of topics - from how each group is feeling about their party, to the level of concern about accurate vote-counting, to the war in Iraq and much more.

BUSH APPROVAL AT 36% IN TWO POLLS

The current holder of the office has seen his popularity slip a few more points, down to 36% in both a Survey USA poll and an AP/Ipsos poll.

WAL-MART CHIDES EDWARDS OVER PLAYSTATION FLAP

Former Democratic V.P. candidate John Edwards is on the wrong end of a rather pointed press release from Wal-Mart.

The discount department store giant is accusing the former senator, a vocal advocate for the poor and frequent critic of Wal-Mart's low-wage business model, of attempting to use use his position to score a Playstation3 game console from a local Wal-Mart.

Here's a quote from a Wal-Mart press release Thursday:

"Yesterday, a staff person for former Sen. Edwards contacted a Wal-Mart electronics manager in Raleigh, North Carolina to obtain a Sony PlayStation3 on behalf of the Senator's family. Later that night, Sen. Edwards reportedly re-told a homespun story to participants of a United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) union-sponsored call about how his son had chided a fellow student for purchasing shoes at Wal-Mart.

Edwards, quoted by the Associated Press, said the whole thing was an error in judgment by an overzealous young volunteer:

"My wife, Elizabeth, wanted to get a Playstation3 for my young children. She mentioned it in front of one of my staff people," Edwards said. "That staff person mentioned it in front of a volunteer who said he would make an effort to get one. He was making an effort to go get one for himself.

"Elizabeth and I knew nothing about this. He feels terrible about this. He made a mistake, and he knows he should not have used my name," Edwards said.

Whatever the case, the far left and right ends of the blog-o-spectrum are having a battle as fierce as any at your local mall on Black Friday.

Righty bloggers are trying to pin a bit of hypocrasy on Edwards, while the lefty bloggers are calling it a smear campaign not unlike the one the following John Kerry's "joke" a couple of weeks ago.

SANTORUM WON'T RUN, AND OTHER FRIDAY NOTES

Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, defeated for re-election last week, told a radio interviewer he has no intention of running for president in '08.

Quoted in the Philadelphia Inquirer today, Santorum told radio host Michael Smerconish he's not interested in a bid this time around.

"Absolutely, positively not. Absolutely not," Santorum said . "My wife would throw me out of the house if I do anything in '08."

THOUGHTS FROM DOWN UNDER

Proving that U.S. presidential politics can be widely entertaining, The Sydney (Australia) Morning Tribune is already handicapping Hillary Clinton's chances of winning a presidential race she has not yet officially entered.

RUDY GETTING FINANCIAL BACKERS IN PLACE

Having already taken steps to form an exploratory committee, formerNew York mayor Rudy Giuliani has also been busy rounding up financial support for a presidential bid, courting some deep-pockets at New York's "21" earlier this week, The (NY) Daily News Reports.

ROMNEY HAS BUSY WEEKEND PLANNED

Massechusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is bringing together leading supporters and advisors for a political retreat this weekend. Sure to be discussed is Romney's anticpated bid for the GOP presidential nomination in '08, according to the Boston Globe.

The Associated Press is reporting Romney will also attend a rally Sunday to demand the state legislature take up a measure which would allow voters to decide the fate of same-sex marriage in Massachusetts.

McCAIN TAKES FIRST STEPS IN PRESIDENTIAL BID



John McCain today took the first formal steps for his 2008 presidential bid by filing to form an exploratory committee.

The Arizona Republic's Web site is reporting, though, that McClain claims he will not make a final decision to run until after the holidays.

NEW POLL SAME RESULTS: GALLUP POLL SHOWS CLINTON, GIULIANI WITH EARLY LEADS

Yesterday we told you about a New York-based poll that put New Yorkers Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Guiliani at the top of their party's heap in the race for '08.

Today Gallup released a national poll showing pretty much the same thing. Clinton leads the Democratic pack at 31%. Barack Obama at 19%, John Edwards at 10%, Al Gore at 9%, and John Kerry at 7% round out the top five.

On the GOP side, much as in the Siena New York poll yesterday, Giuliani has a paper-thin lead over McCain (28% to 26%), Condoleezza Rice is third at 13%.

ROMNEY HIRES BUSH POLITICAL PITCH MAN

Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney finished with 5% among the Republicans in the Gallup poll. But of course things are just getting started. In fact, the Boston Globe reports today Romney has hired a former Bush ad man, Alex Costellanos, to assist him as he prepares to run.

By hiring Costellanos, it appears Romney didn't get any message that voters might have been turned off by one of the sleaziest political ad seasons ever this fall. Here's an an example of Costellanos' work, as desrcibed in the Globe article:

Castellanos also produced an infamous television ad for Bush against Vice President Al Gore in 2000, in which the word rats was superimposed over attacks on Gore's prescription drug plan. Castellanos said at the time that it was unintentional and merely a video-editing quirk, but Democrats accused him - and, by extension, Bush - of using a subliminal derogatory message. - Boston Globe

PATAKI ON DAILY SHOW - SORT OF

New York Gov. George Pataki, who has barely registered in any of the early polls, checked in at 1% in today's Gallup Poll. Despite his poor showing in the presidential polls, and his low 40s approval rating in his home state, Pataki is has been spending so much time in Iowa he's starting to look like Radar O'Reilly (those of you under 35 won't get the reference). All of which prompted the Daily Show's Jon Stewart to poke a little fun.

HILLARY, RUDY LEAD SIENA NEW YORK POLL

Not too surprsingly, two New Yorkers top the list in a presidential preference poll taken in New York state by the Siena Research Insititute.

In the Siena New York Poll, released today, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field. She's favored by 49% of those polled. Illinois Sen. Barak Obama is a distant second at 15%. None of the other Democratic hopefuls - including Al Gore, John Edwards and John (I started a joke) Kerry - got into double digits.

On the Republican side, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani tops the list, but just barely. Giuliani is favored by 34% of New York Republicans, compared with 33% for Arizona Sen. John McCain. Outgoing New York Gov. George Pataki clocked in at 7%, behind "other candidate" (16%) and "don't know/no opinion" (10%).

Really, the intriguing part of this poll is the one-on-one matchups between Clinton and McCain or Giuliani. Head-to-head Clinton topped Giuliani 53% to 39% and she trounced McCain 55% to 36%.

That's interesting because in the summer, before November's blue wave, Giuliani would top Clinton in some of the one-on-one polls and Clinton and McCain were often neck-and-neck.

Obama would fall to both Giuliani and McCain, based on the results of this Siena poll.

DIAGEO HOTLINE POLL SHOWS NEW (BLUE) WAVE OF OPTIMISM

Another poll released today, the Diageo Hotline poll, shows that by a large margin actual voters in last Tuesday's elections are glad the Democrats took control of Congress (60% happy to 29% unhappy for the House; 59%-30% for the Senate). Some 53% of actual voters said they believe things will get better in Iraq with the Dems in control of Congress. Only 16% think things will get worse.

TOMMY THOMPSON TESTING 'O8 RACE

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson was in Iowa today, and now we know why.

Thompson, a former secretary of Health and Human Services during President Bush's first administration, said today in Des Moines he "hopes" to seek the GOP nomination for president, according to the Des Moines Register's Web site.

Thompson says he expects health care to top this list of issues in '08, and says he's more than up to speed on that issue. Being from neighboring Wisconsin may also help him in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.

Meanwhile, earlier this week, the Register's political columnist David Yepsen said the presence of Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack in the Democratic race for the White House may actually diminish the importance of the Iowa caucus results.

If Vilsack does well, Yepsen says, the rest of the country may view Iowa as playing favorites, which would lessen the impact of the results there and damage the credibility of the caucus process.

WELCOME TO THE '08 CAMPAIGN

And welcome to PrezPolitics.

It's been just a week since the 2006 mid-term elections, and some of those races haven't even been settled yet. But the 2008 presidential race is already underway. In fact, it has been for some time.

Who's in:

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack , a Democrat, has announced his intentions to run, but one wonders how seriously he will be considered by voters.

This summer a poll of voters in his own state, done by The Des Moines Register, showed Vilsack polling at 10%, in fourth place behind former V.P. candidate John Edwards at 30%, Hillary Clinton at 26% and John Kerry (well before his ill-advised "joke") at 12%.

On the GOP side, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is in. So is Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Who's out:

Among the Democrats, former Virginia governor Mark Warner, thought to at least be able to make some noise in the race, stepped out before he stepped in. Ditto Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin.

Among the Republicans thought to be considering a run, no one has officially dropped but after last Tuesday you'd have to say Virginia Sen. George Allen and Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum are goners.

And then there are those presumed in the race, but not officially there yet, as outlined in this roundup by Reuters' political correspondent John Whitesides.

For those of you familiar with our former site NYPols, we'll be covering the presidential race as thoroughly as we watched the mid-terms unfold in New York. For those of you who are new to us, welcome! and enjoy!

Please feel free to comment at any time. I do give each comment a quick eyeball before it's posted to make sure it's not libelous or too distasteful. But no one gets censored for their politics or ideas.

This site is under construction and will be in operation on or before Dec. 1, 2006.