Pollster John Zogby, writng today for The Huffington Post, says the 2008 election could be significantly impacted by the ever-growing, and as yet uncommitted, Hispanic vote.
Hispanic voters shifted notably toward George Bush in 2004 and then back toward the Democrats in the 2006 mid-terms.
Zogby says a key factor in '08 will be the way this voting block swings. And he says Republicans aren't winning any friends in this group with their stance on immigration.
Just as in the 1990s, the party was viewed as the mean party that hated all immigrants, today the Republicans struggle to find a middle ground among the anti-immigration conservatives and the growing Hispanic voter base. There is no doubt that immigration hurt the party overall this year. If the party is smart, it will compromise on immigration and work with the Democrats on an immigration reform that grants amnesty to guest workers, offers a path to citizenship, and at least tries to reduce the flow of new illegal immigrants entering the country.
And the fence will have to go.
SIX REASONS WHY HILLARY WILL FIND THE GOING ROUGH IN '08
The conventional wisdom of Hillary as frontrunner continues to take a beating today. (See our previous post). The National Journal's Chuck Todd points out six reasons why Clinton may find tough sledding on those snowy primary nights a year or so from now.
Todd says :
- Clinton backers appear to lack the passion shown by supporters of other candidates.
- In Iowa, no woman has ever been elected to a national office or as governor
- Her positions on Iraq are rather hawkish to hold up well in Democratic primaries
- Gender could be a problem, since no woman has ever held the office before
- Comparisons to her husband and concerns she may not measure up may hurt her
- Voters may want to break the Bush, Clinton, Bush cycle
I'm not saying I buy any or all of these, though No. 1 sure seems to have validity from where I stand. But I present them for your perusal.
MAKING A CASE FOR TOM VILSACK
As we reported in an earlier posting today, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack became the first Democrat to officially toss his hat into the presidential ring.
He's clearly not a household name outside of his home state, but Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's The Fix plays devils advocate in favor of this long-shot bid.