04 March 2008

War of words is key

Hillary Clinton has characterized Barack Obama's presidential campaign is little more than fancy words.

Obama has argued that, although his campaign is a lot more substantive than that, words do matter.

They're going to matter big-time after the results of today's four primaries are known.

I'm not in the business of prognostication. That's often when trouble starts.

But based on the
latest polls over the past few days, I'm going to stick my neck out and say Hillary Clinton will win Ohio tonight by 5 to 10 points, and probably a lot closer to 10.

polls of the past two days show Texas as a tossup, but new polls released today show Clinton with a mid-single-digit lead.

I'm going to assume this all means the momentum has swung noticeably toward Clinton in the past few days and that she will notch a slim victory in Texas - though I think Obama could win more delegates in the state.

I'm going to say the two will also split the two small states voting today - Rhode Island and Vermont.

Most news organization have Obama leading Clinton by about 100-120 delegates, depending on who's doing the counting - and by about 140-160 pledged delegates.

Despite the fact that she seems poised to win Ohio and the popular vote in Texas, the delegate needle is not likely to move more than about 10 0r 20 in Clinton's favor. Which is hardly a move at all.

It's six long weeks until Pennsylvania, the next mother load of delegates. So the war of words after today's elections will be important.

If she wins the popular vote in both Texas and Ohio, Clinton's argument that she's as viable as Obama will be strengthened greatly.

But Obama can still boast a delegate lead and likely victories in more of the remaining states than Clinton is likely to pull off. With mostly western and southern states among the dozen elections that will remain after tonight, Obama's argument would seem to hold.

But Clinton, ahead by double-digits at the moment, is likely to take the largest single prize- Pennsylvania.

As of today
her national numbers are as good as Obama's.

And she is likely to come out of tonight with a legitimate claim of momentum.

But with virtually no chance of winning the nomination with pledged delegates, Clinton may face a war of words with party leaders - who are growing tired of the length and nastiness of this campaign.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said the other day that the race must end after tonight, with the candidate holding the most pledged delegates being the nominee.

There is no chance of that happening, but it is indicative of a restlessness within the party over the possibility that the two candidates will tear each other down enough to lose in November.

NBC's Tom Brokaw today broke a story saying that about 50 super delegates are poised to come out very soon in Obama's favor.

That's another indication that the patience of party leaders is growing thin.

Depending on who the 50 are, the pressure for Clinton to step aside could be great.

She will need a strong argument to stay in the race.

But if the polls of the past few days are correct she just may be building that argument successfully.


Margaret Bravo said...

Why you're at it,any chance you could give me a hint about the winning lotto #'s.
Wow. Impressive.

Ron Vallo said...

the best advice I can give you on the lotto Margaret is to save your money!!