06 February 2008

Clinton, McCain take California

Dems fight to Tsunami Tuesday draw
Romney's future in doubt

Although the final totals won't be coming for a while yet, California appears to have gone for John McCain on the GOP side and Hillary Clinton among the Democrats.

With 20% of the vote in, both McCain and Clinton have large double-digit leads.

The win for McCain puts a cap on what has been a big n
ight for him.

Having won nine states as of now, and most of the winner-take-all states, he'll have a huge lead in delegates in the morning, and may very well be looking at Mike Huckabee on the wrung below him rathe
r than Mitt Romney.

Romney won his home state of Massachusetts and the state where he saved the Olympics - Utah.

He also took Montana, Colorado and Minnesota, so he could make a weak argument that he is the candidate of the West. But, seriously, how good would Romney look in a cowboy hat?

Having finished third throughout the South - a place where Huckabee scored his five wins on the night - and second to McCain in most of the states McCain won, Romney doesn't appear to have the gas to keep going.

In fact, MSNBC is reporting that Romney's top staff will hold "frank discussions on the future of the campaign" Wednesday.

In the big surprise of
the night, it appears Tsunami Tuesday may have washed Romney out of the race.

As for the Democrats, since we last posted Barack Obama has taken a come-from-behind win in Missouri.

That means Obama took two of the five states we identified earlier as those that Clinton had led big-time a few weeks ago but could lose tonight.

But more importantly, Clinton has scored what looks
like a decisive win in California, the largest state on the docket.

She also took her home
state of New York, the second largest state that voted Tuesday. Although Obama countered that by winning his home state Illinois.

So, while Obama can argue that he made inroads into Clinton country,
Clinton can make an argument - and maybe a better one - that she held serve against the Obama surge. She can also say she beat back the Kennedy clan, which campaigned heavily for Obama in both Massachusetts and California.

The most important numbers tonight though are the delegate counts - which we actually won't know until morning.

As of about 12:45 a.m, NBC's Chuck Todd put Obama at 841 to Clinton's 837, with the numbers for California and New Mexico guestimated and the super delegates eliminated.

However you slice it, the two are as good as tied in the delegate count.

As for the horse race, Clinton supporters will fervently believe, with some justification, that she grabbed back the momentum.

Obama's team, with equal credibility, can say they picked off some Clinton states, that Clinton won California with votes that were cast weeks before Obama picked up steam and that they still have a wave to ride.

Check out final vote totals here.


Margaret Bravo said...

So what does the future hold for the political aspirations of the Kennedys,who took a huge gamble and lost?

Ron Vallo said...

Obama's campaign credits the Kennedy endorsements for helping to bring him from 15-20 points down nationally and in many state polls to nearly even in many of the races.

so while they didn't seem to make much difference in Calif. or Massachusetts, the Obama people still think it helped.