Tsunami Tuesday likely to decide very little
Voters wanted a vote that would count.
State-level politicos wanted more influence in picking their party’s nominee.
National party officials just wanted the whole nominating thing over with in a hurry to keep intra-party squabbles to a minimum, while maximizing fundraising time for the November election.
And so, Tsunami Tuesday – the 22-state delegate grab set for this Tuesday – was born.Just three days out, it looks like the voters’ wishes will win out.
With 2,025 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination and only 1,681 at stake, it is mathematically impossible for either Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to clinch the Democratic nomination Tuesday.
On the Republican side, even if the surging John McCain were to win every one of the 1,023 delegates at stake Tuesday, he’d still be about 70 delegates shy of the needed 1,191.Despites the mathematics, the GOP could have a virtual nominee by Wednesday morning, largely due the winner-take-all rules in 10 of the party’s 21 Tsunami Tuesday contests.
“Clearly with the winner-take-all states, McCain will be well on his way to the nomination,” said Dr. Chris Malone, a political scientist from
According to a compilation of polls published on the Web sites Real Clear Politics and U.S.A. Election Polls, McCain is favored in five of the all-or-nothing states – his home state of Arizona, as well as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware.
Romney’s chances may also be hurt by the fact that he’s not the clear No. 2 in some of the big states where the delegates are parceled out proportionally. For example, former
In addition, Romney’s home-field advantage in
“I think it’s doubtful any of the Republicans – even McCain – can wrap it up, but I don’t see it being an end for anyone either,” Zaino said. “But if anyone drops out it would definitely be on the Republican side.”
Among the Democrats, Obama has been surging in national polls in the past week, having closed the gap with
“My sense right now is that Obama is going to do better than people expect, including in places like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts, said Pace’s Malone. “I would not be completely surprised if he came out of Super Tuesday with a 200- to 300-delegate advantage. Things are swinging in his direction in a big way.”
Iona’s Zaino called those four states “must-win” for
While making what she called “the conservative pick,” putting
She credits a “dramatic” showing by the
“Endorsements are overrated but not in this case,” Zaino said. “I think the more progressive, or liberal Democrats have always been more drawn to Obama but were wondering if they could really support him. I think the Kennedy endorsement gives them a sense that ‘yes I can support him’ and to say ‘I’m not entirely comfortable with Hillary Clinton.’”
With all 22 Democratic contests offering delegates proportionally, Zaino says Obama could win even if he loses Tuesday night.