04 February 2008

The surge is working (Obama's that is)

My Tsunami Tuesday outlook posted Saturday is pretty much holding up, but some last-minute polling over the weekend seems to be providing more evidence for the notion - expressed by both politcal pros I interviewed for the story - that Barack Obama could ride a rising wave and pull off a big surprise tomorrow night.

A number of the most-recent national polls show Obama just about even with Hillary Clinton.

In fact two of them, a Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, and a CNN/Opinion Research poll, show Obama ahead by six and three points respectively.

A CBS/New York Times poll shows them dead even at 41%, and a Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Clinton up by three four nationally.

The Gallup tracking poll had Clinton up by two points this morning.
Voters obviously don't vote nationally in the primaries, but 22 states will hold elections tomorrow.
In three of those states in particular, Obama has made the biggest inroads.

The latest Zogby tracking poll, through yesterday, shows Obama with a six-point lead in Caliornia.

In New Jersey, a Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton leading Obama by five points in a state where she was leading by 17 points just 10 days earlier.

In Missouri, Obama leads by two points in an American Research Group poll, while Clinton is up by anywhere from one to six points in three other polls - McClatchy/MSNBC, Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby and Survey USA.

These, of course, are not all of the polls and others show slightly different results. But, taken as a whole, the polls are showing the kind of surge by Obama that we saw just before New Hampshire.

Of course we know how that turned out.


Speaking of just before New Hampshire, it was a couple of days before that primary that Hillary Clinton had her teary-eyed moment that some say helped her reverse her fortunes in the state by prompting women to get out and vote in droves for her.

Today, on the eve of Super Tuesday, there was another mushy moment for Clinton, this time at Yale University.

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