16 January 2008

Polls point McCain's way

With the Republican race wide open and three more primaries on the docket before Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5, John McCain got a lift from a few polls unearthed today.

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll shows McCain leading in South Carolina, which votes on Satu

The polls show the Arizona senator with 29% of the vote, Mike Huckabee with 23%, Mitt Romney at 13% and Fred Thompson 12%.

Political Wire got a look at a Strategic Vision poll which shows McCain ahead in Florida at 27%. Mike Huckabee is second at 20%. He's followed by Rudy Giuliani at 18%, Mitt Romney at 17% and Fred Thompson at 10%.

Two things to notice here besides McCain's lead in both states.

Neither poll - obviously - was taken after Romney's win in Michigan last night, so there's no "bounce" recorded yet. However, Romney is far enough back it's not clear how much a jolt from Michigan will help in either of these two southern states.

The other thing to notice is that Giuliani is nine points behind McCain in Florida. If Giuliani can't pump up those numbers in the next 10 days, Florida will not only be his first stand, but perhaps his last.

Romney, on the other hand, has a lead in the latest Nevada poll, by American Research Group, with
28%, followed by John McCain at 21%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Rudy Giuliani at 11%.

In this poll 10% of those polled are undecided and 46% said they could change their minds by Saturday.

All the
national polls released in the past week favor McCain, with Huckabee several points behind and Romney in third, polling mostly in the low to mid-teens.

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