26 March 2007


As we said in our earlier post, John Edwards and Fred Thompson are the stars of today's presidential polls.

But there's a curious wrinkle at the top of recent the GOP polls that has been little noticed but is quite newsworthy. (Or as newsworthy as any poll can be a year out).

John McCain is regaining some ground on Rudy Giuliani.

In particular, McCain is doing well in the races that matter, the individual state races.

American Research Group has put out seven state polls this month. In five of the seven (Florida, Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire and Arkansas), McCain leads Giuliani. The two are tied at 29% in Iowa and Giuliani is ahead in Texas.

(McCain and Giuliani are top-two in all of these polls except in Arkansas, where home-stater Mike Huckabee has a big lead.)

Throw in a victory for Giuliani in his home state of New York, in a Siena Poll released today, and McCain still wins the lion's share of states in this recent spate of polling.

The American Research Group's most-recent national poll, released March 8, shows Giuliani leading McCain by just four points, 34% to 30%. In today's USA Today Gallup poll, Giuliani's lead over McCain is down to 9 points. Just three weeks ago he had a 22 point lead.

We'll check on the weekly Rasmussen Reports Republican Poll tomorrow to see if it further supports the notion that McCain is experiencing a rebound.

Perhaps McCain's "Straight Talk Express" is really a magic bus (apologies to The Who and their fans).

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