04 February 2007


Hillary Clinton made her first campaign visit to Iowa last weeekend.

It apparently paid off.

In a major reversal from most recent polls, an American Research Group poll released yesterday shows Clinton leading the Democratic pack in Iowa at 35%, well ahead of John Edwards (18%), Barack Obama (14%) and home-stater Tom Vilsack (12%).

The numbers are somewhat stunning given that Clinton finished fourth in a Strategic Vision poll on Jan 25. and second, but well behind John Edwards, in a Des Moines Register poll in mid-December. Edwards was a big winner in both.

Clinton did lead the December American Research Group poll 31% to 20% over Edwards, so it reamins to be seen if Clinton's January push is specific to this poll for some reason or will carry over to the others as well.

On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani leads John McCain 27% to 22%, with Mitt Romney third at 11%.


Hillary Clinton is well ahead of her Democratic rivals in two other polls published this weekend.

The Detroit Free Press published a poll yesterday showing Clinton 30 points ahead of her closest rival, Barack Obama. John Edwards polls at only 9% in Michigan.
However, while Clinton has slim leads over the top two Republican candidates - John McCain and Rudy Giuliani - in one-on-one pairings, both Edwards and Obama prove to be stronger candidates against the GOP duo.

The poll illustrates the fear of many in the Democratic Party - that Clinton will use her money and organization to run away with the primaries but struggle to put up a "W" in the general election.

Giuliani leads McCain in Michigan 32% to 28%


The Tulsa World, meanwhile, is running a poll today which shows Clinton leading the Democratic slate 28% to 23% over John Edwards. Republican John Edwards leads Rudy Giuliani in Oklahoma 25% to 17%. Oklahoma Republicans seem also to still be holding out for Condi Rice, who polled third at 16%.

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