27 February 2007

Obama Gains Among African-Americans
(updating throughout to include Washington Post/ABC poll)

Another day, two more polls

Today it's the Diageo/Hotline and ABC News/Washington Post polls, and they bring more bad news for John Edwards and John McCain.

As we mentioned yesterday, February has not been kind to Edwards and he ends the month with the tailspin continuing.

Earlier this month we chronicled McCain's poll woes, as Rudy Giuliani opens a gap in the GOP race. Things look even worse for McCain in today's polls.

The Diageo/Hotline polls puts Edwards in third among Democrats, at a shockingly low 6%, while McCain falls to 12% on the GOP side, also well below his already-slipping numbers earlier in the month.

Hillary Clinton (32%) and Barack Obama (20%) lead the Democrats. Giuliani is ahead on the GOP side at 17%.

In the ABC/Washington Post poll, Edwards is fourth, at 12 %, behind Clinton (36%), Obama (24%) and Al Gore (14%).

McCain takes a major tumble on the GOP side in the ABC/Washington Post poll.

Giuliani leads the Arizona senator 44% to 21%, with Newt Gingrich third at 15%. Mitt Romney, who many still see as a strong candidate despite poor polling numbers that only seem to get worse, came in at 4%.

So, in one month's time, Giuliani's lead over McCain lurched to 23 points from 7 in January.

There's one other major shift to note in the ABC/Washington Post poll.

Obama cut Clinton's lead in half since January, from 24 points to 12, mostly on the strength of surging support from African Americans.

"Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the changes among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator." --Washington Post

The numbers, if you look at the more specific breakdowns, also show that most Americans say they have little trouble with the idea of a black or woman president, but have stiffer opposition to someone in their 70s (McCain), someone who was divorced twice (Giuliani) and a Mormon (Romney).

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