09 December 2006


The latest National Journal poll of "insiders" - members of Congress, party activists, fundraisers, consultants, lobbyists, and interest-group leaders -leave no doubt who they believe will be the nominees for the two major parties in the 2008 presidential race.
Of those polled, 69% expected Hillary Clinton to prevail in the Democratic primaries, while 73% of respondents said McCain would win the GOP nomination.

The National Journal is subscription-only so we can't get at all the numbers (we're much too cheap for that), but in its analysis, National Journal points out that although Democratic insiders believe Clinton will win the nomination three out of four believe someone else would make a better candidate.


Clinton and her fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani are at the top of their respective party in yet another presidential preference poll published late this week - the WNBC/Marist poll.

In that one, Clinton leads former V.P. candidate John Edwards 33% to 14% among Democrats who responded to the poll, while Al Gore checks in at 12% and Barack Obama at 11%.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani is just one percentage point ahead of John McCain, at 34% to 33%. Condoleezza Rice finishes third at 13% and Newt Gingrich is fourth at 8%. In the previous WNBC/Marist poll, in October, McCain trailed Giuliani by 8 points,

The poll also delves into several one-one-one pairings, which you can check out here if you like.

In analyzing these numbers, the Associated Press found a most interesting angle.

Some of the below-the-surface numbers in the poll indicate that Clinton is a strong candidate for the primary season and has plenty of question marks as a candidate in the subsequent general election. As an example 47% of all respondents said they would "definitely not" consider voting for her.

On the other hand, the numbers show just an opposite problem for Giuliani. He'd likely do well in the general election, if he can get that far.

Some 47% of Republicans respondents, once they were told of Giuliani's positions on certain social issues (pro-gun control, pro-choice, pro-gay rights), said those issues would be a major factor on their decision on who to vote for in the primaries.

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